NORTH KOREA - BASKET CASE
Kim Jon Un's country is a real basket case. Without support from China and blackmailed concessions from the USA, Japan, and South Korea, the country would dissolve. Since the Korean war, North Korea has been on the precipice, only surviving due to it's insane intransigence and belligerence, which by the way suit's China's need to keep other powers occupied (We will get into that a little later).
Let's compare some statistics on North Korea VS. the USA:
1. North Korea's annual revenue = $28 billion in USD. USA's annual revenue = $19 trillion.
2. North Korea's per person GDP = $1,700.00 in USD. USA's per person GDP = $59,000.00
3. North Korea's economy is 1/50th the size of South Korea's economy.
4. North Korea's nuclear warheads estimate = 60. USA's nuclear warheads estimate = 7,000
5. North Korea's military = 945,000 active. USA's military = 2,363,675 active/ready reserve
6. North Korea's aircraft strength = 944/all types avg. age 43 years. USA's aircraft strength = 14,000+/all types avg. age 17 years.
7. North Korea's tanks = 5,025/avg. age 47 years. USA's tanks = 6,000/state of the art.
8. North Korea's armored fighting vehicles = 4,100/avg. age 47 years. USA's armored fighting vehicles = 41,000/state of the art.
9. North Korea's artillery = 6,500 USA's artillery = 3,200
10.North Korea's rocket projectors = 2,400 USA's rocket projectors = 1,300/state of the art.
11.North Korea's aircraft carriers = 0 USA's aircraft carriers/all types = 19
12.North Korea's frigates = 11/avg. age 40 years USA's frigates = 8/state of the art.
13.North Korea's corvettes = 2/avg. age 32 years. USA's corvettes = 0
14.North Korea's destroyers = 0 USA's destroyers = 63/state of the art.
15.North Korea's submarines = 76/avg. age 44 years old USA's submarines = 70/state of the art.
16.North Korea's small patrol boats = 450 USA's small patrol boats = 13/state of the art.
17.North Korea's unemployment rate = 26% USA's unemployment rate = 4.3%
It's easy to see that North Korea is no match either economically or militarily with the United States. Why then are they causing such a ruckus? Their leader, Kim Jon Un now definitely has nukes and a way to deliver them. In his mind he is in a much better position to blackmail the USA, South Korea, Japan, and others in the region. His father and grandfather were successful blackmailers in their time, just threatening war and nuclear development. Now he has in his own mind a hand full of aces to play poker with these same nations, and those aces are miniature nukes and ICBM's.
How did it come to this? The real reinforcement to the blackmail strategy came in 1994 with the Clinton North Korea deal. The Clinton administration negotiated a great deal with North Korea. In return for $4,000,000,000 in concessions from us, the North Korean government agreed to stop their nuclear weaponization program, and only pursue the use of nuclear power for electricity generation. On the surface the deal was brilliant, with just one fault. Clinton was dealing with a rogue regime, that did not have any intention of living up to the bargain. After the concessions were collected, North Korea was back to their bad behavior. In effect, we paid a dear price for nothing. Subsequently, the Obama administration made no effort to stop North Korea from nuclear weapon development, giving Kim Jon Un the impression that the USA is weak and will do nothing.
The lesson is that one should never negotiate in good faith with a rogue regime, especially one like North Korea. Kim Jon Un's biggest fear is regime change, and he knows that the USA is capable of pressing for that. Now that he can threaten the USA with nuclear destruction, he believes that he has us over a barrel, and his threats are not so gentle reminders that he is willing and capable of pulling the nuclear trigger if he so desires. Sad to say, but the way we have handled North Korea over the years has created this situation. Regime change should have happened a half century ago, and now we have a monster on our hands.
China has also used North Korea as a buffer zone to insure that the USA did not have an ally bordered on Chinese soil. One of China's nightmares is just that, a unified Korean peninsula that leans toward western values and democracy. They like it just the way it is, with Kim Jon Un firmly ensconced as dictator. They control his food supply, his economy, and he in turn has allegiance to the Chinese leadership. That relationship is strained right now, and even China, North Korea's only ally, is considering an alternative to Kim Jon Un.
China sees that Kim has become uncontrollable. China does not want to see a war, and Kim's behavior is pushing that scenario to reality. The last thing China wants is millions of North Koreans fleeing over the Chinese border, creating chaos and economic uncertainty. China also values her relationship with the USA. Even though in many ways China and the USA are rivals, economically they feed off each other. China exports $1.5 trillion in goods to the USA every year, with 90% of these goods actually being American branded goods that otherwise would have been made in America. That is roughly 1/20th of their entire economy, and they can't afford to lose that, and that gives us leverage with them. In addition, the USA has China as their largest creditor, with China holding about 1.268 trillion in US treasury notes financing our looming debt, which gives them leverage with us.
Rex Tillerson knows that the USA and China can fix this mess, and both countries have a big interest in the fix. Regime change is most likely the only real solution to the Kim Jon Un issue, and we will wait and see how this plays out. The last thing that China, the USA, South Korea, and local allies need is a shooting war, and that should be avoided at all costs.
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